Legitimizing the Taliban

3 01 2012

“American officials have said in recent months that the opening of a Taliban mission would be the single biggest step forward for peace efforts that have been plagued by false starts.”  This is a quote in today’s New York Times in an article entitled, “Taliban to Open Qatar Office in Step to Formal Talks.”  Pundits are viewing this as a prime opportunity and venue to hold “peace talks” with the Afghan Taliban.  However, I see something different:  (1) the post-9/11 war effort that toppled the Taliban from power, ten years later, only seems to revert back to negotiations with the very same enemy to share power after the US / ISAF pull-out in 2014; and (2) this “mission” is a means for backdoor legitimacy for the Taliban (although we know that they are not one monolithic entity – the top echelons under Mullah Omar will likely benefit most).

This is a very dangerous precedent, because it symbolizes what I call the calcification of the mind.  The Taliban are the enemies of knowledge.  Their empowerment, or return to empowerment, even if it’s limited, does not bode well for the future of Afghanistan, which, in my view, will fall back to square one.  No doubt, some Taliban are already congratulating themselves for their “victory” in gaining even an ounce of legitimacy, just by virtue of being recognized as an entity with which presumably peace talks can happen.  Once again, no one is thinking about the ideological and developmental disaster this portends for the Af-Pak region.

Consider this:  In Quil Lawrence’s NPR report (September 8, 2011), he interviewed a member of the Afghan Parliament who was also in the Northern Alliance, now a school principal.  Here is what Jaleb Mubin Zarifi, an ethnic Tajik, said in the interview:  “Democracy is un-Islamic,” and he praised the laws of the Taliban, saying, “The laws that they [Taliban] implemented – a good example, for instance, is about women – they asked all women to wear hijab (headscarf), and that’s a good thing.  And we know now that the women are not wearing hijab, and look what’s happening:  there’s cancer and AIDS everywhere now in Afghanistan.”  This was a Northern Alliance guy, not even Taliban.  Add the Taliban into the mix, and brace for the 21st century Inquisition.  Militant ideologies will have a field day.

This is not to say that a viable resolution should not be pursued in Afghanistan.  However, this rush to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, and even opening a mission office for them in Qatar smacks of desperation to plug all the holes before pulling out of Afghanistan, out of fear that President Karzai’s house of cards might collapse, perhaps from the force of Taliban laughter in the wind.

NOTE:  Everything I write in this blog constitutes my personal opinions and views.


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Categories : 9/11, Afghanistan, ISAF, Karzai, Militant Ideologies, Mullah Omar, Northern Alliance, Qatar, Taliban

The Syrian Paradox

2 01 2012

In September 2010, I attended a public lecture at the Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy in Newport, Rhode Island.  The speaker was the Syrian Ambassador to the United States, Imad Moustapha.  The auditorium was standing room only, and he proved to be a captivating speaker.  Ambassador Moustapha was articulate, engaging with the audience, knowledgeable, and overall an excellent orator, with panache for persuasion.

Similarly, former Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa manifested his cleverness and political savvy, especially during the Madrid talks (1991).  When you get a chance, watch the footage of FM al-Sharaa when he responds to the Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, who in opening remarks, even before the “peace talks” began, condemns Syria as the “haven for terrorists” (paraphrasing).  FM al-Sharaa was the next speaker at the podium, and he decides to change his speech upon hearing PM Shamir’s hostile rebuke; instead he whips out a piece of paper and holds it up to the audience, and al-Sharaa points to the paper and exclaims in the mic that Shamir himself was a wanted terrorist during the British mandate era.  Shamir’s photo was on the paper, with the words “WANTED” in bold type on top, a wanted poster from the 1940s.  You can find this footage in the PBS documentary film “The 50 Years War:  Israel and the Arabs.”

The point of all this is that Syria is full of paradoxes.  Having lived in Syria for almost a year, I discovered that the political elite is usually highly educated and politically very savvy.  The educated classes in Syria are also very impressive, and I am sure particularly among the youth who are spearheading the current protest movements, we are likely to find some of the most intelligent individuals.  Despite these rich assets, Syria has a very dark side, as we are witnessing today, although it’s not unprecedented.  The father, Hafez al-Assad, set the bar for brutality, no doubt.  So, in one sense, we should not be surprised about Bashar al-Assad’s reactions and brutality.  On the other hand, one would believe that after all these years the Syrian government would mature.  Not so.  Hafez and Bashar have kept Syria economically lagging, politically isolated (with the exception of strong ties with Iran), and violent repression seems as routine as breathing.  Police states do not flourish socioeconomically and otherwise.  They only invest heavily in the military, and lock their boots on the necks on their own people.  Imagine if all those resources were invested in development, education, economic ventures, technology, R&D, I mean, where would Syria be today with that kind of investment and visionary leadership?

Syria today is a grave tragedy, and each time I see the headlines, it breaks my heart.  Having seen the paradoxes in Syria, I should not be too surprised, but I am profoundly affected nonetheless.

NOTE:  Everything I write in this blog constitutes my personal opinions and views.


Comments : 2 Comments »

Categories : Assad, Syria

Women and War / Peace

1 01 2012

Please watch this CBS News profile of Zainab Salbi, founder of Women for Women, an NGO that helps women war victims rebuild their lives (the org:  http://www.womenforwomen.org/about-women-for-women/zainab-salbi.php).

Here’s the CBS News piece:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7393442n&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CBSNewsPCAnswer+(PC+Answer%3A+CBSNews.com)

I fervently hope that this year the plight of women, and women’s empowerment, will become the priorities from the societal level all the way up to policy makers, worldwide.


Comments : 1 Comment »

Categories : War, Women

Gateway to 2012

31 12 2011

NOTE:  Everything I write in this blog constitutes my personal opinions and views.

As we enter 2012, I will dare to make some predictions about the Middle East, South Asia, and US foreign policy. This is dangerous, of course, because those of us who are Middle East scholars and political scientists know very well that making predictions is risky business.  But, I will take the opportunity of New Year’s Eve, reflecting on the amazing, tumultuous, and unimaginable events of 2011, and analyze the possible directions they will take in 2012.

The epicenter in 2012 will be Syria and Iran, although the post-uprising dust will still be settling in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, and as Robert Fisk has predicted, will continue to do so for years to come.

Yemen might descend into civil war, as if it isn’t already showing signs.

Pakistan’s internal crises will continue to metamorphose into various forms, one often triggering another.  Although the military contends that it will not carry out a coup, anything can happen.  Anything is possible.  US-Pakistan relations will continue to be frayed, while some attempts for reconciliation will continue.  Negotiations over resuming US foreign aid to the Pakistani military will be priority #1 for Pakistan.  That will offer some leverage to the US to extract some concessions from Pakistan.

Afghanistan will be status quo for the most part, although backdoor negotiations with the Taliban will continue.  And, while that happens, ironically, the Taliban and other militant groups will continue their attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The critical events in 2012 will involve Iran and Syria.  US and other Western powers’ and GCC states’ foreign policies relative to Syria are a means to sever and undermine Syrian-Iranian ties, which are very strong (i.e., between the Assad regime and Iran’s regime).  So, in reality, the stance against the Assad regime has more to do with Iran than really taking a stand against the Syrian regime, as seen with the extremely pathetic Arab League “observer” delegation’s government-controlled sweep of Syria.

Syria is likely to descend into a brutal, bloody civil war (and I really hope I am wrong about this, but that’s what the facts on the ground indicate).  This will potentially destabilize Lebanon, and could suck Iraq, Turkey, and Jordan directly or indirectly into the conflict.  It can even drag Israel into the battle.  This whole scenario would be a disaster for the region, setting it back even more decades than it already is lagging behind.  In the fog of this scenario, there will be attempts to undermine Iran, as well as to destroy or disrupt progress in Iran’s nuclear program.  This is all speculation, but as an analyst / expert of the region, it is informed speculation nonetheless.

So, as we enter through the gates of 2012, there is reason to shudder when considering the Middle East, and what’s happening in Syria.  Clearly, Assad will not go quietly, and it will come at the expense of terrible bloodshed.

On the plus side, despite all the difficulties and struggles that the protesters in Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt continue to endure, at least the snake’s head has been removed there.  Now, and in the years ahead, the task of getting rid of the snake’s body is before them.  They are up to the task.  Never lose hope.


Comments : 8 Comments »

Categories : Iran, Middle East 2012, South Asia, Syria, Taliban

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